To anyone performing commodity trading analysis, this subject is a basic one. It is as basic as saying, “To live, one must breathe once in a while”.
This is because future events and trends are found in past events. If for example on the first day of every year, electricity demand shoots up in Anytown, USA, then it is safe to predict that next Jan 1, demand for electricity will again shoot up.
So it seems to go with anything else… including human behavior.
For example, I was stymied by the average *native* Londoner’s avoidance of eye contact and casual chatting on the street or in the building lobby at work with strangers (namely me). However, those with whom I work are very friendly to me, more than I would expect.
Then I began reading Ivanhoe by Walter Scott. At first it was just a diversion; a way to force myself away from work at lunch. However, unbeknownst to me, this story also contains a treasure of historical English behavior patterns and speech.
Then it became clear to me what was going on. Centuries of behavioral training have taught the native Englander that one must be properly introduced (and family history known) before familiarity can comfortably take place.
Yes, I’ve read it in the preparatory articles I read before coming here but somehow reading a historical account told in story format made this more clear to me.
So, knowing the past (in this case, behavioral patterns) can help me to predict how my new-found roomates will behave in a given situation.
Pretty cool.